This article by Eoin Ó Murchú was first published in the 07.07.24 election special supplement of Unity, the publication of the Irish Communist Party.
The British general election has, as expected, resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party and the savaging of the Tories. In the North it has seen the consolidation of Sinn Féin’s position as the largest party, along with a serious reversal for the DUP which lost three of the eight seats it previously held.
Despite the hype, however, the British result is clearly more a rejection of the Tories than any enthusiasm for Keir Starmer’s Labour.
Indeed, Labour performed less well with Starmer than it did with Corbyn. In 2017 Labour got 12.8 million votes or 40%; in 2019 it got 10.2 million votes (32%); and this time it got 9.6 million votes, 34% on a much lower turnout.
It is Britain’s undemocratic first-past-the-post system that has produced such a majority.
The really significant thing is that Nigel Farage’s Reform Party syphoned votes in considerable numbers from the Tories. Reform got 14% of the vote, though only four seats; while the Liberal democrats, with 12% of the vote got 71 seats. More to the point Reform came second in many seats won by Labour, and any failure of that party to deliver will play into Farage’s hands.
This all adds up to a very volatile situation. It is to be seen whether the genuine Left forces, typified by Corbyn holding his seat in Islington as an Independent, or Galloway just missing out in Rochdale, along with several Muslim candidates disgusted at Starmer’s backing of Israel’s genocide attempt, can fill the vacuum in British politics and ensure that the next election is not just a return to the previous status quo but one that can make a real break with Labour’s kowtowing to international capital.
In the short term, Starmer will endeavour to keep the capitalist ship afloat in Britain, and play his own disgraceful part in the imperialist plans of NATO and of the world’s reactionary forces. Starmer’s “change” will mean no change at all.
Here at home, the elections just emphasise the irrelevance of Westminster to Irish affairs. Taking seats or not, none of those elected will have any influence on British policy.
Sinn Féin is happy, of course, to have its position as the largest party confirmed, holding all its seats, coming very close indeed in East Derry and eating substantially into the SDLP’s majority in Foyle.
For the DUP, it has been a very bad night, with the survival of new party leader Gavin Robinson in East Belfast the only bright light.
Some will welcome the savaging the DUP has received, but it should be noted that they were brought down not by a swing to more tolerant forces but by an entrenchment of even more unenlightened groups, as shown by Jim Allister’s victory over Ian Paisley jr in North Antrim.
This will make it more difficult to push a policy of working together across the sectarian divide, and make the DUP less amenable to rational thought and rational action.
In this regard, Ireland’s Future has interpreted the results as meaning that a Border Poll is now inevitable.
There are two points to be made. First of all, the new British government under Starmer will have complete discretion as to when or if a Border Poll should be called. And Starmer is a more committed opponent of Irish Unity than even the Conservatives.
Secondly, the key pressure for a Border Poll, and indeed for a United Ireland, will come when significant, not necessarily majority, elements of the PUL community are willing to contemplate such a step.
If Irish Unity is only brought about by sectarian demographics it will be easy prey to international capital, which already has the South wrapped up in its hold. Only a united people can carry Unity through to Independence.
This election, then, is not one for change in any real sense, but it may well be one that opens up a new chapter of struggle.