The following article by Eoin Ó Murchú was first published in Unity, the weekly paper of the Irish Communist Party.
IT is said that truth is the first casualty of war, and that has never been truer anywhere than in relation to the war in Ukraine. Russia's genuine interests are never discussed, as it is easier to dismiss the whole matter as outdated imperialism, and NATO's role in both the 2014 Ukrainian coup and in expanding right up to Russia's borders is ignored.
Our political-media establishment is selling a long war to the public by pushing the narrative of Ukraine winning. As the proxy war against Russia is sold to the public as being driven by empathy for Ukrainians, it is important to defend that narrative from inconvenient facts.
Europe's media on general and Ireland's media in particular would have us believe that Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse – despite rising oil prices – and that Ukraine is recapturing territory on the front line.
These assertions are not true.
The reality is that while Russia's offensive has slowed overall, it has continued in one crucial area, on the route towards Kramatorsk, a city in the Donbas region. It is already reported that Russian forces have broken into Kostiantynivka.
Fierce fighting is underway in that city – one of Ukraine's four strongholds in the Donbas – and the Russians are now clearing buildings one after another. This clearing operation will take time, but it does not appear that the Ukrainians will be able to hold the city now.
Ukrainians are pointing to the missile strikes that Ukraine now regularly carries out against Russia. These are undoubtedly a morale boost for Ukraine, but they do not change the underlying direction of the war.
Ukraine has had notable success in hitting Russian supply lines behind the front. But the observable facts do not support the narrative that the war has turned a corner.
Most of the false stories arise from people believing what they want to believe. They are stories full of noise and anger, devoid of meaning.
When we read that Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Volodymyr Zelensky are laying down conditions even for speaking to Vladimir Putin, we know that they believe they hold all the cards, as Donald Trump would say. That tells us that they are not genuinely ready for peace talks.
In particular, the idea that Russian assets should remain frozen until Russia agrees to pay compensation is wishful thinking.
Putin is not ready for talks either. He believes there is a realistic military path for him. It will not happen overnight, but progress, slow or small, is being made towards taking full control of the entire Donbas.
The greatest threat is the propaganda the West and the Ukrainian regime take comfort in believing. There are reports of false estimates of Russian war dead. The published figures are arithmetically impossible. On some of those estimates, Russia would have lost about 2 million troops, which would be more than the total size of its armed forces. This is pure propaganda.
The same applies to reports that Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse. Russia has just emerged from an economic recession. Indeed, the fiscal situation has worsened, and Putin is raising taxes and even seizing assets from his oligarchs.
But to put it in context: Russia's deficit, at 2.6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is modest compared with Ukraine, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Russia's debt-to-GDP ratio, at 16–18% of GDP, compares with France's ratio, which is approaching 120% of GDP.
The economic outlook also favours Russia. The ongoing war in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, not just temporarily. If the current agreement holds, it is more likely that the oil price will settle into a range that is permanently above pre-war levels. Since oil is the main source of income for Russia's economy, the claim that Russia's economy is collapsing does not fit with the data we have, nor with what we can reasonably predict.
But propagandists do not care about the truth if they can influence the public and ensure that popular support for the war continues.
However, Europe's publics are growing weary of the war, and despite all the fine rhetoric, the leaders understand the truth even if they refuse to acknowledge it publicly.
Ireland's leaders are so anxious to be 'best boys in class' and curry the favour of the EU elites that acknowledging the truth is beyond them. So they continue to parrot the wish that Ukraine should continue fighting until there are no Ukrainians left.